Climate Change and Security: A Threat Analysis

Abstract

The evolving nature of regional and global threats throughout history and the transformations in how wars are conducted have led to a gradual change in the perception of security. This evolution has diversified the scope, structure, actors, and objects of security. The increasing environmental damage, especially after the Industrial Revolution, has significantly augmented environmental problems, which have been directly linked to security since the 1960s and 1970s. In this context, the study thoroughly examines the multifaceted relationship between climate change and security, which stands out as the most prominent environmental concern. It meticulously analyzes the various security threats instigated by climate change. Ultimately, it proposes potential measures and precautions to address these threats. In its broadest sense, security is defined as a state of being free from danger, risk, and threats, with the concept of threat holding a central position in security definitions. While acknowledging that security is a relative concept akin to love, freedom, and power, making a definitive definition challenging, there is a consensus on its vital importance for entities such as individuals and states. It is noted that resources can be sacrificed to ensure security. The fundamental elements in defining security include the referent object, the threat element, the legitimate provider of security, the means and methods of ensuring security, and what can be relinquished for its allocation. Determining threats by political decision-making mechanisms has also drawn criticism regarding its potential use as a tool of oppression. The need for security emerged with the transition to settled life, subsequently contributing to the rise of states, armies, and wars, with the understanding of warfare and security transforming following technological advancements post-Cold War. Proxy wars and deterring mass destruction weapons became significant aspects of this era. The emergence of non-state actors and irregular elements in new forms of warfare has blurred the lines of threats, while private military companies have also appeared as security providers. Security is considered across three dimensions: national security, near-environment security, and global security, and the Copenhagen School's securitization theory suggests that security can also be viewed as a negative concept. Securitization involves presenting a situation not normally considered a security issue as a threat. Efforts by state actors to establish control over society through securitization can impede the resolution of actual security problems. Security is the second most basic need in Maslow's hierarchy and is analyzed at individual, national, regional, international, and global levels. Security has military, political, economic, social, and environmental dimensions. The increasing environmental problems, particularly climate change, have broadened the scope of security and elevated the importance of environmental security. Climate change is regarded as the most significant global security threat among environmental issues, primarily because it profoundly affects human lives and living standards. Climate change refers to long-term shifts in temperature and weather patterns, primarily caused by increased greenhouse gas levels due to the burning of fossil fuels after the Industrial Revolution. Rising global population, industrial activities, deforestation, and various emissions exacerbate this process. The consequences of climate change include drought, desertification, floods, storms, epidemics, sea-level rise, food insecurity, biodiversity loss, and pollution of water resources. These issues contribute to social, political, and economic instability, irregular migration, terrorism, water scarcity, and resource competition, thereby threatening regional and global security. The perception of climate change as a security threat has also brought the concept of climate justice to the forefront, highlighting the disproportionate impact on countries with minimal contribution to climate change. It is argued that countries with greater responsibility should support less impactful nations to address this injustice. Migration holds a significant place among the primary security threats caused by climate change. Climate-induced environmental problems make life unsustainable in some regions, forcing people to migrate to more habitable areas. Drought, water scarcity, sea-level rise, and limited food access are key drivers of this migration. Climate migration can lead to social tensions, power vacuums, and civil conflict risk in originating and destination countries. Resource competition and terrorism are also critical security threats triggered by climate change. The struggle for dwindling natural resources intensifies competition among nations, while desertification and poverty can create fertile ground for the organization of radical groups. Poverty is another indirect but significant security implication of climate change. Climate change reduces agricultural output, increases food prices, and disproportionately affects people experiencing poverty. Impoverished individuals are more susceptible to migration, joining radical groups, or engaging in criminal activities. The deterioration of human health is also a substantial security threat posed by climate change. Air pollution, water contamination, the use of pesticides, and natural disasters negatively impact human health. The increased frequency and intensity of natural disasters due to climate change lead to human and economic losses, threatening national security. Water supply is a critical security area affected by climate change. Climate change disrupts hydrological cycles, degrades the quality of potable water sources, and can trigger conflicts due to scarcity. Similarly, food supply is becoming a security threat due to climate change-induced desertification, droughts, and pest infestations. Disruptions in food and water supply directly impact human lives, increasing the fragility of nations. Addressing security threats stemming from climate change necessitates global cooperation. Key proposed measures include reducing greenhouse gas emissions, promoting renewable energy sources, preserving ecological balance, supporting international collaborations, alleviating poverty, fostering sustainable economic activities, ensuring resource security, preventing food and water waste, updating disaster management plans, and raising awareness for climate justice. In conclusion, the security threats from climate change are expected to intensify shortly, necessitating more radical national and international measures.